UNC-Duke: The Matchups
Posted Feb 7th 2007 6:06AM by
Sportz Assassin Here are the matchups for tonight's North Carolina-Duke game. Instead of the normal positional battles...below is more of a sectional battle. Starters names are in italics:
BACKCOURT
UNC: Tywon Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Marcus Ginyard, Bobby Frasor, Wes Miller, Quentin ThomasDUKE: DeMarcus Nelson, Greg Paulus, Jon Scheyer, Martynas Pocius
The key here will be Duke's ability to slow down the speed in the Heels' backcourt. This will be a great match-up as Duke has always prided themselves with the defensive guards and they will get a work out with this Heels team. They are deep in the backcourt and have a variety of guys they can bring in. Despite being freshmen, Lawson and Ellington don't turn the ball over as much as you'd think. They should in this one since Duke really pressures the ballhandlers. Lawson is finding his offensive legs while Ellington has become one of the better perimeter players in the ACC. Ginyard [defense], Frasor [intelligence], Miller [range] and Thomas [speed/passing] bring different aspects when they get into the game. For Duke, the big thing will be how Paulus performs. Paulus can look great at times...while looking lost at others. Nelson should keep in the tradition of experienced off guards who tend to torch the Heels when they get their chance. UNC doesn't guard the three-point shot that well, so Scheyer could really become a Duke X-factor.
WINGS
UNC: Reyshawn Terry, Danny GreenDUKE: Gerald Henderson, David McClure
Henderson has just recently broken into the starting lineup for the Devils. He is very athletic and has gotten into the lineup by picking up his defensive effort. Terry is a tough pickup for most small forwards. Terry is also athletic, has great range and has that senior experience that helps in games like this. He's 6'9 and one of Carolina's best rebounders. However, this season Terry seems to be on his own program at times and can play himself out of games. Green and McClure are good intangible guys for both teams. Both are very good defenders but Green is a bigger scoring threat.
FRONTCOURT
UNC: Tyler Hansbrough, Brandan Wright, Deon Thompson, Alex StephensonDUKE: Josh McRoberts, Lance Thomas, Brian Zoubek
The premiere matchup is here. Entering 2005, Tyler Hansbrough and Josh McRoberts were the top names that entered the college ranks. Last year, Psycho T was the focal point of UNC while McRoberts was more of a role player. This year, Hansbrough doesn't have to have outstanding games for North Carolina to win...while Duke needs McRoberts to play well to have success. Both are tireless on the boards and are willing to bang inside. Tyler is more physical while Josh is more athletic. The difference here is Brandan Wright, one of the ACC's top freshmen. Wright, at times, turns into Carolina's best player. He's tall, lanky, has long arms and very athletic which means there will be two guys in Carolina blue fighting on the boards, and Wright is a solid shotblocker. The key will be if Thomas can make a difference inside. Last year, Hansbrough did well against an experienced defensive guru Sheldon Williams. Can Thomas hold his own and contribute? And don't underestimate the contributions of Thompson for the Heels.
INTANGIBLES
Well, both teams are coming off tough losses. UNC lost at NC State in which they were outplayed and outclassed. No doubt that Roy Williams has this team focused for this one. Duke has lost two straight, including Sunday's home game with Florida State. At times, Duke looks like they can be the Duke we all know and love/hate. Other times, Duke becomes befuddled and struggles the find points. Both teams can bring the defense...but Duke does a much better job doing it all the time. It also will be interesting to see how Carolina's freshmen hold up to the Cameron Crazies. Last year's freshmen crop did a solid job. One clear advantage for UNC is their depth. The Heels will keep moving people in and out of the game to keep their guys fresh in that hot, steamy, tense atmosphere. Needless to say, the coaches have been in some big games before.
STYLE
UNC wants to push it. Duke wants to work it. Whomever gets to impose their will gets a big advantage. Normally in games that pit high scoring teams against low scoring teams, the low scorers want to slow the game down and limit the amount of possessions. Look for Duke to do that. That could end up being advantageous for a variety of reasons. One, it will keep UNC from running them out of the gym. Two, it should frustrate the Heels enough for them to force up quick shots which, at times, kills Carolina. And when UNC has bad nights on the offensive end, their defense suffers. A problem for Duke is that they turn the ball over waaaay too much...which plays into the runnin' Heels hands.
HOW I FIGURE IT WILL PLAY OUT
Duke will open up with a furor. The emotion will be there as they really, really need this win. The Heels will [they better] stuff that opening run and work their way back into the game. For the rest of the first half, both coaches will work their benches, subbing liberally until halftime. At the half, the game will be within 4 points [either team could be leading]. Second half rolls out. They key will be who imposes their will. I think UNC will find places in the Duke defense they can exploit. Both schools are nice 2nd half teams so they will take it to war for a while. But UNC pulls away as their fresh legs finally allow them the run a bit and get some easy baskets. Duke furiously closes the gap within the final two minutes...setting up a great finish. The Heels interior presence of Hansbrough and Wright come alive, get to the line, and salt the game away. The verdict? North Carolina 75-Duke 70
